QQQ Watchlist: Trump Trade Tariffs

This week, Orion AI picked five $QQQ ( ▼ 0.04% ) stocks that will be impacted by Trump tariffs and trade tensions. They are $MU ( ▲ 2.22% ), $NVDA ( ▲ 0.87% ), $AAPL ( ▼ 0.3% ), $TXN ( ▼ 0.12% ) and $TSLA ( ▲ 1.39% ).

Scores: Fundamental 8 | Analyst Sentiment 9 | Valuation 7 | Catalyst 8 | Technical 9 | Total: 41

Trade Suggestions: Long Normal | Entry: 123.0 | TP: 140.0 | SL: 118.0 | Confidence: 8

Investment Thesis:

Micron Technology presents a compelling long opportunity, driven by its pivotal role in the burgeoning AI market and a significant financial turnaround. The company's leadership in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is a primary growth engine, evidenced by strong sequential revenue growth and strategic partnerships with key AI players like Nvidia. Management's high confidence, coupled with robust financial performance exceeding guidance and disciplined supply management, paints a picture of a company with strong operational momentum. While current relative valuation metrics may appear average, the exceptionally low forward PEG ratios and strong projected EPS growth indicate that the market has yet to fully price in Micron's future potential. Technical indicators are strongly bullish, confirming the upward trend and outperformance against the broader market. Despite inherent industry cyclicality, patent litigation, and intensifying HBM competition, the overwhelming positive catalysts and fundamental strength make MU a high-conviction investment for continued growth in the memory sector.

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Scores: Fundamental 8 | Analyst Sentiment 8 | Valuation 3 | Catalyst 9 | Technical 6 | Total: 34

Trade Suggestions: Long Normal | Entry: 175.0 | TP: 185.0 | SL: 170.0 | Confidence: 6

Investment Thesis:

Based on a comprehensive analysis, NVIDIA presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity, underpinned by its unparalleled leadership in the rapidly expanding AI market. The company's financial performance is robust, driven by strong demand for its accelerated computing platforms and successful product execution. While analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, the stock's current valuation is extremely stretched, indicating that much of its future growth potential is already priced in. Geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning US-China trade and associated revenue levies, pose a notable headwind. Technically, the stock is in a strong uptrend but shows signs of being overbought in the short term, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. Therefore, a tactical long position initiated on a price pullback to a key support level is advisable, allowing investors to capitalize on NVIDIA's dominant position and powerful catalysts while prudently managing the risks associated with its high valuation and short-term technical signals.

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Scores: Fundamental 7 | Analyst Sentiment 7 | Valuation 3 | Catalyst 7 | Technical 7 | Total: 31

Trade Suggestions: Long Normal | Entry: 222.0 | TP: 235.0 | SL: 219.0 | Confidence: 6

Investment Thesis:

Apple Inc. presents a compelling long-term investment case driven by its robust financial performance, strong product ecosystem, and strategic pivot into AI. The company's successful supply chain diversification has significantly de-risked tariff concerns, and its commitment to innovation through substantial AI investments and in-house modem development positions it well for future growth. However, the stock is currently trading at a premium valuation, and faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny, particularly concerning its App Store policies, and an unquantified material risk related to its Google revenue share agreement. Technically, while the stock shows strong bullish momentum, it is in overbought territory, suggesting a potential short-term pullback. A tactical long entry on a dip, with disciplined risk management, is advisable to capitalize on its underlying strength while mitigating immediate overvaluation and technical risks.

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Scores: Fundamental 6 | Analyst Sentiment 6 | Valuation 2 | Catalyst 9 | Technical 4 | Total: 27

Trade Suggestions: Long Normal | Entry: 185.0 | TP: 197.0 | SL: 179.0 | Confidence: 6

Investment Thesis:

Texas Instruments presents a compelling long-term investment opportunity, despite its current overvaluation and short-term technical weakness. The recent strategic partnership with Apple and the critical exemption from new tariffs are powerful, immediate catalysts that significantly enhance TXN's competitive advantage and revenue certainty. While Q2 performance was solid, management's cautious tone regarding potential demand pull-ins and the lagging automotive market suggests near-term volatility. However, the company's robust U.S. manufacturing footprint, long-term focus on free cash flow growth, and exposure to secular trends like electrification and AI provide a strong fundamental backbone. Current technical indicators show bearish momentum, but this may be a temporary dip before the market fully prices in the recent positive news. A tactical long position, entered near support, is justified to capitalize on these strong catalysts, with disciplined risk management.

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Scores: Fundamental 3 | Analyst Sentiment 2 | Valuation 1 | Catalyst 2 | Technical 7 | Total: 15

Trade Suggestions: Long Breakthrough | Entry: 337.0 | TP: 345.0 | SL: 334.0 | Confidence: 3

Investment Thesis:

Tesla presents a complex and high-risk investment scenario. Fundamentally, the company is facing significant near-term challenges, including declining core EV sales, shrinking margins, and the impact of expiring tax credits and tariffs, leading management to warn of 'rough quarters'. The valuation remains astronomically high and unsustainable, with all relative metrics indicating severe overvaluation compared to peers. While Tesla holds a compelling long-term vision in AI, robotics, and energy, the financial impact of these ventures is distant and overshadowed by immediate operational and regulatory headwinds, as well as mounting legal and governance concerns. Despite these strong fundamental negatives, the stock exhibits robust short-term technical momentum, outperforming the broader market and showing bullish signals across key indicators. A tactical, high-risk long trade on a confirmed breakout above key resistance could capture this momentum, but it must be executed with extremely tight risk management. For the medium to long term, the overwhelming fundamental and valuation concerns suggest significant downside risk, making it an unfavorable investment without a substantial re-rating of its core business or a clearer path to profitability from its future ventures.

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